Thursday, May 7, 2009
My Answer
My reaction: Swine flu has been so far, so good for the world.
1) As expected, U.S. stocks fall and drag down travel, hotel and shares.
2) The stock market should get more stable.
3) Closing US borders with Mexico for swine flu is useless since the virus is already planted in a dozen or more countries.
4) Don’t fear about statistic because death statistics are people with the tears wiped away.
5) Stop post any unconfirmed information on the internet because the world will get it and it makes everything worse and worse.
6) An isolation and quarantine are important because that is the only way we find the cure.
7) Stay calm and reduce stress about the virus and wash your hand before you eat everything is fine.
8) Don’t scare about pork, continue eat it but make sure it boiled or fried at high temperature.
Conclusion: We are in pandemic but don’t panic anymore because according to the research from Dr. Eric Toner of the Center for Bio-security, this virus is not worse like bird flu or SARS, our health can eliminate it but right now our bodies are unprepared with this type of virus.
Move back around1918 this type of virus was discovered and we don’t know this is a virus, we also think that is a cold or fever, at that time it happens in small farm in Canada and nature eliminate it. Until 1930’s we found this virus again and this time we know what are they and how to deal with by contain the spread area, eliminate all possible subject to infect, at the end this virus was disappear but we still don’t have any medicine to cure it.
According to this story, swine flu affects every part in the world because the media push it too hard. The media wants to sell their news so they picked the worse part of the show for present to the audience. Moreover, most of audience believe in what they have seen and hear so that will get worse and worse. Reaction around the world cause the stock market dropped sharply, chaos in many places and traveler reduce in many countries that found virus. It is a few example of effect around the world but it’s not what you saw. In the mean time every scientist in the world are working on anti-virus and we hoped we will finish it soon.
It would be a very good idea to you to relax and do whatever you want to do but remember every time before you put something in your mouth. Please!! Wash your hand and everything is going to be fine.
Reference4
The Killer Swine Flu: Origins & Prevention!!!
Pandemic Flu Simulation Model
Swine Flu Pandemic Alert Level 5
Reference3
Who knew that swine flu could also infect Twitter? Yet this is what appears to have happened in the last 24 hours, with thousands of Twitter users turning to their favorite service to query each other about this nascent and potentially lethal threat as well as to share news and latest developments from Mexico, Texas, Kansas and New York (you can check most recent Twitter updates on the subject by searching for "swine flu" and "#swineflu"). And despite all the recent Twitter-enthusiasm about this platform's unique power to alert millions of people in decentralized and previously unavailable ways, there are quite a few reasons to be concerned about Twitter's role in facilitating an unnecessary global panic about swine flu.
First of all, I should point out from the very outset that anyone trying to make sense of how Twitter's "global brain" has reacted to the prospect of the swine flu pandemic is likely to get disappointed. The "swine flu" meme has so far that misinformed and panicking people armed with a platform to broadcast their fears are likely to produce only more fear, misinformation and panic.
Thus, Unlike basic internet search -- which has been already been nicely used by Google to track emerging flu epidemics -- Twitter seems to have introduced too much noise into the process: as opposed to search requests which are generally motivated only by a desire to learn more about a given subject, too many Twitter conversations about swine flu seem to be motivated by desires to fit in, do what one's friends do (i.e. tweet about it) or simply gain more popularity.
In situations like this, there is some pathological about people wanting to post yet another status update containing the coveted most-searched words – only for the sake of gaining more people to follow them. And yet the bottom line is that tracking the frequency of Twitter mentions of swine flu as a means of predicting anything thus becomes useless (however, there are plenty of other non-Twitter ways to track the epidemic and Mashable does a good job of summing them all up).
That aside, the "swine flu" Twitter-scare has once again proved the importance of context -- and how badly most Twitter conversations are hurt by the lack of it. The problem with Twitter is that there is very little context you can fit into 140 characters, even less so if all you are doing is watching a stream of messages that mention "swine flu." Now, the lack of context is probably not a problem in 99 percent of discussions happening on Twitter -- or, at least, it's not a problem with devastating global consequences.
However, in the context of a global pandemic -- where media networks are doing their best to spice up an already serious threat -- having millions of people wrap up all their fears into 140 characters and blurt them out in the public might have some dangerous consequences, networked panic being one of them. If you think that my concerns about context are overblown, here are just a few status updates from random Twitter users that would barely make you calmer (or more informed) about what's going on:
I'm concerned about the swine flu outbreak in us and mexico could it be germ warfare? (link)
In the pandemic Spanish Flu of 1918-19, my Grandfather said bodies were piled like wood in our local town....SWINE FLU = DANGER (link)
Good grief this swine flu thing is getting serious. 8/9 specimens tested were prelim positive in NYC. so that's Tx, Mexico and now Nyc. (link)
Short Ribs! How long before the Swine Flu hysteria crashes the pork market? 2 hours? 3? (link)
be careful of the swine flu!!!! (may lead to global epidemic) Outbreak in Mexico. 62 deaths so far!! Don't eat pork from Mexico!! (link)
Swine flu? Wow. All that pork infecting people....beef and chicken have always been meats of choice (link)
SIMPLE CURE FOR THE NEW BHS (BIRD/HUMAN/SWINE FLU) AS REPORTED ON TV LAST NIGHT IS THE DRUG TAMIFLU....ALREADY A PRESCRIPTION ON THE MARKET (link)
Be careful...Swine Flu is not only in Mexico now. 8 cases in the States. Pig = Don't eat (link)
If my reading list on Twitter was only restricted to the individuals who had produced the posts above, by now I would be extremely scared and probably feeling a great urge to post a scary Twitter update myself. In moments like this, one is tempted to lament the death of broadcasting, for it seems that the information from expert sources -- government, doctors, and the like – should probably be prioritized over everything else and have a higher chance of being seen that the information from the rest of one's Twitter-feed, full of speculation, misinformation, and gossip.
Here is a tough question to communication experts out there: how do we reach the digital natives out there, especially those who are only accessible via Facebook and Twitter feeds? The problem is that while thousands of concerned and misinformed individuals took to Twitter to ventilate their fears, government and its agencies were still painfully missing from the social media space; the Twitter of account of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was posting updates once in a few hours -- and that was probably the only really trustworthy source people could turn to online.
But what about the rest of the US government or international institutions like WHO? In an ideal world, they would have established ownership of most online conversations from the very beginning, posting updates as often as they can. Instead, they are now faced with the prospect of thousands of really fearful citizens, all armed with their own mini-platforms to broadcast their fears -- which may cost it dearly in the long term.
The question of whether we need to somehow alter our global information flows during global pandemics is not a trivial one. A recent New York Times piece highlighted how a growing number of corporations like Starbucks, Dell, and Whole Foods are turning to Twitter to monitor and partially shape conversation about particular brands or products. What the piece failed to mention was that conversations about more serious topics (like pandemics- and their tragic consequences) could be shaped as well.
I think it's only a matter of time before that the next generation of cyber-terrorists -- those who are smart about social media, are familiar with modern information flows, and are knowledgeable about human networks -- take advantage of the escalating fears over the next epidemic and pollute the networked public sphere with scares that would essentially paralyze the global economy. Often, such tactics would bring much more destruction than the much-feared cyberwar and attacks on physical -- rather than human -- networks.
Let's just do some thinking about what's possible here. One of the least discussed elements in the cyber-attacks that struck Estonia in 2007 was psychological operations. There was, for example, a whole series of text messages aimed specifically at Estonia's vast Russian-speaking populations urging them to drive their cars at 5km/h at a specific time of they day; quite predictably, this led to a hold-up in traffic (you can watch a TV report in Estonian about this here). Thus, a buy-in from the most conspiracy-driven 1% of the population may be enough to stall traffic in the entire city. We could easily expect even more devastating consequences from the public scares generated by global pandemics. This is the reason why the current wave of Twitter-induced speculation -- and manipulation -- are worth paying attention to...
photo by The Pug Father/Flickr
Reference2
The Swine Flu Effect
URL: http://seekingalpha.com/article/133469-the-swine-flu-effect
Post by: Carol Flake Chapman April 28, 2009
The sudden appearance of a new strain of influenza has become a dramatic lesson in stock market dynamics. If we apply the chaos theory to the market, a cough in Mexico can cause an economic storm in Asia.
Markets in Asia and Europe dropped sharply on speculation that the outbreak of swine flu will curtail travel and consumer spending. Shares of airlines and hotels were particularly hard hit, which is not surprising. The price of corn and soybeans dropped as well on speculation that an outbreak of swine flu may reduce demand for pork, and consequently the grains that feed them.
The World Health Organization called the outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern,” raising concerns of a similar outbreak to the H5N1 bird virus that spread across Asia in the past few years killing millions of poultry and several hundred people and slowing trade.
Asian money managers expressed fears that like the previous bird flu cases, this outbreak may slow international trade and disrupt government’s effort for an economic recovery.
On the other hand, shares of companies that will benefit from the outbreak have risen. The obvious ones are Roche (RHHBY.PK), the maker of Tamiflu, and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), which produces Relenza, the other medication used to combat flu symptoms. Basel, Switzerland-based, Roche, which said it has an ample supply of the Tamiflu treatment that can reduce swine flu symptoms, added 3.9 percent in Europe to 145 Swiss francs. Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., the Tokyo-based unit of Roche, surged 14 percent in Asia to 1,845 yen. Roche gained a similar amount in the U.S. market on Monday, while Glaxo climbed even more, up to a 7% gain.
Similarly, shares of Biota, the small Australian company that holds the patent for Relenza, soared nearly 80% in that market.
Another company, this one based in the U.S., will also benefit, and that’s Gilead (GILD), which holds the patent for Tamiflu and will receive a percentage of Roche’s profits. It’s a much larger and more diversified company than Biota, however, and obviously won’t gain nearly as much. Other companies that will benefit include the makers of surgical masks, which would include 3M (MMM) and Kimberly Clark (KMB). Of these, Kimberly Clark would be the better choice for investors. The company maintains a Web site for preparedness in case of a pandemic.
Still another beneficiary is Quidel (QDEL), which makes rapid diagnostic kits for the flu.
More speculative stocks, which have already doubled and then pulled back a bit, include two makers of flu vaccines that are still being tested, Novavax (NVAX) and Biocryst (BCRX).
If the market holds to previous patterns, the stocks that plummeted the most will regain ground over the next few days, while those that have climbed the highest and fastest will pull back, leaving those that have made only modest or even negligible gains, like Gilead and Kimberly Clark, in the best positions.
Disclosure: Long GILD
Reference1
URL: http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/16258/battling-flu-restoring-pride
Published: 7/05/2009 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News
The meeting of Asean health ministers in Bangkok this week faces a dual threat. The first is the outbreak of H1N1 swine flu which has spread around the world from Mexico. The second is the political uncertainty in Thailand, and specifically another protest by the red shirts of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). It must be stated strongly that these two events are not connected, and it is a matter of both urgency and national priority to ensure they are kept separated.
This time, the authorities must ensure by all necessary means that there is no interference with the meeting of the Asean ministers and officials.
The so-called "summit" on the latest epidemic of influenza has important aims. Despite recent experience gained with the 2003 Sars outbreak and the more recent serial eruptions of avian flu, the response to the swine flu crisis was far from smooth. Specifically, the early-warning mechanism supposedly in place for more than four years arguably failed. The first public statements and protective acts against spread of the H1N1 flu in the Asean region came days after newspaper headlines informed the public.
This should trouble the ministers due to meet in Bangkok. The same Asean health ministers set up a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) Task Force in October 2004, which was specifically charged with providing early alerts and then to direct an effective regional response to disease outbreaks. The task force was to work with the World Health Organisation and international agricultural agencies. The plan clearly was late or inadequate in the latest health emergency.As the ministers declared at their 2004 meeting, the Asean Secretariat was to take an active and leading role in coordinating a regional response to health emergencies. Again, that has not happened during the past weeks of the Mexico-centred flu outbreak. It was left to national governments to set up individual and often contradictory responses. Such uncoordinated actions have led to both wasted and confusing advice to Asean citizens.
The main subject on the agenda of the ministers, according to Public Health Minister Witthaya Kaewparadai, is a new plan to stockpile supplies of anti-influenza drugs. It is a shocking admission by the Thai government and Asean that no such coordinated stockpiling plan and procedure exists. It is doubly outrageous because the treatment for the current outbreak of swine flu is the same as for the avian flu of just a few years ago. Mr Witthaya's suggestion last week that the Singapore-based supply of oseltamivir (sold under the trade name Tamiflu) might be insufficient for the region's population, is a troubling admission about a supposedly dependable anti-disease measure.
While the ministers hopefully get down to realistic discussions about public health, a different sort of meeting will be getting under way nearby in Bangkok. The UDD is to assemble for its first public strategy discussion since last month's violence at the Asean summit in Pattaya and in the streets of Bangkok. This time, leaders should consider their actions more carefully. The current health crisis is a matter of life and death for everyone. The Thai leadership of the regional response has provided an opportunity for Thailand to restore international confidence in the country, badly shaken by the violence encouraged by the UDD.
As Thai citizens, the red shirts have the obligation to act responsibly and peacefully. Their leaders should announce at once that they will not interfere with the Asean health ministers or other international meetings.
